Here are the key messages from NHC regarding an extremely dangerous and potentially catastrophic Hurricane Patricia, as of 10 p.m. CDT Thursday, Oct. 22nd. www.hurricanes.gov
From Weather.com
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-mexico-coast?cm_ven=Facebook_TheWeatherChannel_Weather_CWi_Article_No_1_20151023_twcplayer
An extremely dangerous and potentially catastrophic Hurricane Patricia has reached Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. While Patricia is expected to weaken some on Friday, it is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall.
A Hurricane Warning continues from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, and a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion tonight.
Patricia is centered about 200 miles (320 km) southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast Friday afternoon. On the forecast track the core of
Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area during Friday
afternoon or evening.
For more information and additional graphics, go to the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov.
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Public Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/230238.shtml?
For more information and additional graphics, go to the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov.
National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Public Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/230238.shtml?
BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 105.1 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Friday afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While Patricia is expected to weaken some on Friday, it is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas overnight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
